Site Meter Ogre's Politics & Views: Stupid Poll Results

"Democrats winning!" Or so say the "poll results." They claim that

Today Democrats have an 11-percentage point advantage in the Congressional election (49-38 percent), up from a 9-point edge over Republicans two weeks ago.

Almost all Democrats would vote for their party’s candidate (92 percent), and most Republicans would vote Republican (85 percent). Independents are more likely to back the Democrat in their district by 14 points (43 percent to 29 percent).


However, in this type of election, that number is absolutely meaningless. Let me explain why:

In my Congressional District, the Republican will win. The Republican will get about 75-80% of the vote, because this is a vast Republican district. However, if 100% of the Democrats vote Democrat, the Republican might only get 74% of the vote. If only 50% of the Republicans vote, he might get 72% of the vote. And the independents? The vast majority of them (at least in NC) are Democrats who don't want to admit they're Democrats.

The same can be said for the vast wastelands that are Democrat districts (Mel Watt, D-NC). 100% of the Republicans could vote Republican in that district, but when they're outnumbered 2:1, it really doesn't matter.

Due to MASSIVE gerrymandering around the country, there are literally only a few of the 435 seats that might change hands. The only poll that's worth anything is a poll that polls ONLY in those districts.

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